Basic Economics

In February, median single-family home prices in Seattle jumped 24% over February 2015 to $644,950 and King County’s median single-family home price increased 20% from a year ago to $514,975. These prices are well in excess of the median single-family home prices prior to the economic meltdown nearly a decade ago. The dramatically increasing housing prices are only a symptom of the affordability crisis. The underlying cause is a lack of supply. Some people believe that housing markets are not driven by supply and demand – they are wrong. When demand exists and supply is scarce, prices go up. When there is demand and very scarce supply, prices go up a lot. Basic economics.

Are you ready to sell your home?  Call me today at 360-870-5191.

Spring market “not waiting for tulips” but limited inventory frustrates homebuyers

New figures from NWMLS show year-over-year increases in pending sales, closed sales, and prices, while inventory fell by double digits.  Many brokers are city inventory levels have never been this low, in the last 20+ years.  The number of active listings in the NWMLS dropped 11% in the past year.  We saw sales at a higher pace this superbowl season, as compared to last years.

In today’s market, we often see multiple offer situations.  How can a buyer prepare to enter this market?  They must be “buyer ready” so they can react quickly.  Not only should a buyer have a firm pre-approval before they begin there search, they should have an honest and real conversation with their agent about expectations – not only of the agent, the market, as well as themselves.

“Stage is set for another good year” in real estate with year-end gains in inventory, sales, prices

KIRKLAND, Wash. (Jan. 6, 2014) – Brokers with Northwest Multiple Listing Service ended 2013 with the best year-over-year improvement in inventory (up 8.4 percent) and a similar gain in closed sales to buoy confidence heading into the new year. December’s pending sales slipped slightly (down about 1.7 percent) compared to the same month a year ago.

“Positive job growth and the continuation of favorable low interest rates are setting the stage for another good year in real estate,” said J. Lennox Scott.

Friday’s narrow approval of Boeing’s contract proposal for Machinists union members bodes well for members of Northwest Multiple Listing Service and the real estate industry.

Reacting to the vote, MLS board member John Deely said, “The robust and diverse economy of the Pacific Northwest is solidified by Boeing’s continued presence in the Seattle area.” Deely, the principal managing broker at Coldwell Banker Bain in Seattle, said the vote helps secure the region’s position as “the aerospace epicenter of the world with top-notch manufacturing jobs that support the industry.”

Boeing workers and others hoping to buy a home have a bigger selection of homes to consider than house-hunters who were looking twelve months ago – especially in Snohomish County, where the number of active listings is up 43.6 percent.

Northwest MLS members added 4,333 new listings during December, improving on the same period a year ago by 476 listings for a gain of 12.3 percent.   At month end, there were 19,214 active listings in the MLS database, improving on the year-ago supply by 1,496 listings for a gain of 8.4 percent. In Snohomish County, which had the largest jump in supply (43.6 percent), the selection of condos nearly doubled from a year ago, increasing from 172 to 342 listings.

We sold this Lacey Washington home in less than 15 days in the month of December, a normally quiet market for real estate but robust this year.

Pending sales activity during December was mixed around the 21 counties in the MLS service area, with 11 counties showing increases in mutually accepted offers and the other 10 having fewer pending sales than the same month a year ago.  An imbalance between supply and demand could be crimping sales in some areas. As we head into 2014, we will be starting the year with a shortage or low inventory.

Brokers notched 5,710 closed sales last month, improving on the previous year by 443 transactions for a gain of 8.4 percent. During 2013, Northwest MLS members tallied 75,517 closed sales system-wide. That total outgains the previous year’s volume of 64,624 closings for an increase of nearly 16.9 percent.

 “The luxury market will continue to see an increase in sales activity and home values in 2014,” Deely proclaimed. “This market will be driven by pent up demand and by the owners of trophy properties who are confident that values have returned to acceptable levels,” he added.

Northwest Multiple Listing Service, owned by its member real estate firms, is the largest full-service MLS in the Northwest. Its membership includes more than 21,000 real estate brokers. The organization, based in Kirkland, Wash., currently serves 21 counties in Washington state.

6 good reasons now is a very good time to buy a home

If you've been pondering a home purchase, there are some good reasons why now might be a great time to proceed. 


1. Home prices have turned the corner. Home price trends vary by market; however, nationally, on average, home prices are rebounding. Although no one can predict the future, homes prices appear to be heading up. 

2. Homes are very affordable. Homes are still very affordable relative to household incomes. This means you can buy more house for the money now, than you could in less affordable times.

3. Mortgage rates are near historical lows. Mortgage rates inched up recently, but they're still near historical lows.

4. Buying remains cheaper than renting. A 2012 study found buying a home is 44% cheaper than renting in the 100 largest metros. Even with this year's mortgage rates and home prices, there is still a significant cost advantage to buying versus renting.

5. Fewer house flippers to compete with. As home prices recover, house flippers leave the market. These are investors looking to buy a house at a rock bottom price and then quickly sell, or flip, it. They're tough to compete with because they often offer sellers cash deals. 

6. More inventory to choose from. Fewer house flippers can mean there's more inventory to choose from and less pressure to close a deal because of other pending offers. Again, the situation varies from market to market, but you may find there are more homes to see and less pressure to buy in the neighborhoods where you're looking.  

5 unsightly red flags that drive home buyers away

In many places, home prices are heading up and more buyers are hitting the market. If you're selling, you obviously want to get the best price, but don't want to spend a lot on renovations. Fair enough! However, studies show there are five issues you really should address, because they turn off home buyers right away. Fix these and you have your best shot at selling your home in less time for more money. Best of all, you can tackle these issues yourself for not very much money.

1. Paint problems. Peeling paint on siding and trim makes a house look uncared for and results in lower offers from buyers. Inside, walls painted colors that are dark, like navy, or unusual, like hot pink, are a complete buyer turnoff. But painting is an easy and inexpensive do-it-yourself fix.


2. Unkempt landscaping. Your home's curb appeal can make or break a sale. Get out the clippers, pruning shears, and rake, and weed and mulch the beds. It doesn't take that long to spruce up your landscaping, but it can pay big dividends.


3. Wallpaper and paneling. Outdated wallpaper can really throw buyers. It takes time to strip and repaint, but it's worth it. Have a wallpaper stripping party, or hire a company to do the stripping and repaint the walls yourself. Paneling is tougher because removing it can uncover problems. Painting it may or may not work. Talk to your realtor to decide the best route.


4. Mirrored walls. Big walls of mirrors or mirror tiles just don't fly with most buyers who think removing them is a major project. Take them down yourself; repairs shouldn't be that difficult, and then just repaint. To avoid paint matching problems, either use an accent color or repaint the whole room.


5. Closet doors. Buyers lose their enthusiasm for a place when closet doors are missing, out of adjustment, or if they've been replaced with drapes or beads. Make sure all closets have doors installed, adjusted, and properly working. 

As a buyer, when you see these problems in a home you otherwise like, realize that you could be looking at a bargain. Walk away if exterior paint issues indicate severe moisture problems. But the rest of these conditions are minor issues that you can fix yourself for not much money.

Home prices rose in 41 states in the 1st quarter of 2013

• FHFA (Federal Housing Finance Agency) price data shows that home prices across the United States rose 6.7 percent from the first quarter of 2012 to the first quarter of 2013. In 41 states and the District of Columbia prices were higher than the fourth quarter of 2012, and from one year ago the District and all states except Connecticut and West Virginia showed higher prices. In Connecticut and West Virginia, prices were weaker by less than one percent.
• Price gains were largest in the West. Nevada, Arizona, California, and Idaho each saw gains exceeding 15 percent from one year ago. The map above shows the breakout of annual gains for each state.
• Nationally, prices rose 1.9 percent from the fourth quarter. Note that this is seasonally adjusted, but not annualized, meaning that if prices continue to gain at this pace, it would imply an 8 percent gain for home prices nationally in the course of a year.
• FHFA uses a weighted repeat sales index that compares the prices of properties that involve a conforming conventional mortgage purchased or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Thus, the FHFA index is based on a broad geographical sample of home transactions, though it misses out on transactions involving cash, jumbo or FHA/VA loans. In spite of this limitation, its price trend is usually similar to that of other price measures.

Courtesy of Danielle Hale, Research Economist via REALTOR.org

May/June 2013 Market Pulse

Home sales have been hovering at the 4.9 million sales-pace mark since fall of last year and aren’t likely to move up much unless more inventory comes onto the market. As long as markets continue to see inventory shortages, home prices will continue to rise, not a healthy development if household income gains don’t keep up. All trend lines are from March 2012 to March 2013.

How to Ensure Healthy Price Gains

Prices are increasing quickly, though that may not always be the most healthy development for the economy. Also, banks may soon loosen overly strict requirements, but a choke point remains in new-home construction.

The housing recovery is surpassing most expectations. Rising demand and many years of sluggish new-home construction have forced home prices to rise at a near double-digit pace in many parts of the country. The latest surveys from the National Association of REALTORS®, which looked at foot traffic at open houses and inquiries from potential sellers to real estate agents, continued to point toward too many buyers chasing too few sellers. Home prices should continue to rise this year and likely next year as well.

Fast-rising home values are clearly good for home owners, but price increases that are far in excess of income growth are not good for buyers and not a healthy development for the economy. However, it’s important to keep in mind that demand is moving ahead in spite of the stringent lending standards still in place. Fully one-third of buyers are using cash.

Consider what demand would look like if underwriting restrictions were dialed back to a more reasonable level. That’s finally a possibility for two reasons: Banks are sitting on piles of cash, and the quality of recently underwritten mortgages has been high. These conditions could persuade banks to start easing overly strict requirements. The additional demand in a more “normal” lending environment potentially would mean even faster price growth. The only way to tame excessive price jumps is for more inventory to reach the market. Investors could help here by selling properties ahead of their intended schedule to take advantage of rising prices.

The choke point today is from the slow recovery in new-home construction. Housing starts in March finally crossed the 1 million mark for the first time in five years. But 1.5 million new housing units are needed annually to keep home-price gains at a healthy, long-term level of around 3 percent to 5 percent a year. That balance seems unlikely this year as we will continue to see demand outstrip supply, fueling exorbitant price increases in some places.

PER realtor.og MAY 2013 | BY LAWRENCE YUN

New numbers just released from NWMLS: data for today's buyers and sellers

Punxsutawney Phil’s prediction of an early spring is showing up in the latest housing activity report from the Northwest Multiple Listing Service. Its statistics for January showed a 14.4 percent year-over-year increase in pending sales and a 23.6 percent jump in closed sales amid a 31.3 percent decline in inventory.

I listed this beautiful custom home in Olympia on 5 acres for $379,000.  On day 1, I secured a more than asking price offer and have a list of buyers eager to be notified if the current transaction fails.  This is a prime example: supply is low, demand is high.  Call me today for these results.

The MLS reported 4,289 closed sales during January, surpassing the year ago total by 820 transactions. Last month’s completed sales of single family homes and condominiums had a median selling price of $239,300. That’s up 11.3 percent from the year-ago figure of $214,990.

Supply has dwindled to less than two months in some counties close to job centers, spurring bidding wars. Some buyers are even resorting to writing “love letters” to win over sellers in these competitive situations. Brokers also report an increasing number of buyers have little or no interest in making offers on short sales.

As a Broker, the ratio between active buyers and available inventory is so out of balance, even homes that were hard to sell for various reasons are being snapped up so those sellers were wise to list.   So what does this mean exactly?  Now is a good time for sellers to list. Sellers who are considering a spring or summer listing may want to consider listing now as demand is outweighing supply.  This has given well priced sellers the advantage with the benefit of quick sales and multiple offers.

With multiple offers on the rise, buyers are seeking an edge as they vie for a desirable home. Brokers are reporting an increase in the use of heartfelt letters from would-be owners who want to distinguish themselves and forge an emotional bond with the sellers.  Buyers should not forget the human element of appealing to a seller in this multiple offer market.  You just never know who is on the other side of a transaction and what might be important to them.

Brokers in the 21 counties served by Northwest MLS added 7,096 new listings to inventory during January. That total was just slightly more than the number of pending sales (7,016) that members reported last month and brought the total number of active listings at month end to 18,008.

Often we don’t see momentum to really begin building until mid February to the first part of March. This year, I think due to the already low inventory and the continued low interest rates, the market feels like it started mid January.

Despite imbalance between supply and demand, more and more buyers are opting not to purchase short sale homes because of the uncertainty involved. It’s not uncommon for a lender to choose at the last minute to foreclose on a property instead of approving a short sale. When this happens it leaves the buyer high and dry with 2-to-4 months of time invested, only to have to start the process all over again.  That can leave them at a disadvantage considering the current pace of sales.

Sixty percent of homes close to job centers are selling within the first 30 days of being listed – twice the average rate, according to figures compiled by MLS, therefore extremely favorable market conditions have brought a surge of local home buyers into the market. Historically low interest rates and a shortage of inventory are creating an environment for multiple offer situations.

Even though buyers are flocking to newly listed homes, sellers must be smart about pricing. In my area, a home that comes on the market that is well priced for the area, style and condition is usually under contract within a few days.  Additionally, homes that have been on the market for more than 20 days are sometimes subject to price reductions. Today’s market defies basic economics for supply and demand.  Interesting factors include sellers who are still holding back for myriad reasons. Some do not have the confidence or equity to put their home in front of buyers, and that is creating even more pent-up demand.

Yet another positive indicator of the state’s housing market recovery came from the National Association of Home Builders and its NAHB/First American Improving Markets Index (IMI). Six markets in Washington appeared on the list, the largest number since that gauge was created in September 2011. The IMI is based on six consecutive months of improvement in housing permits, employment and house prices.

Northwest Multiple Listing Service, owned by its member real estate firms, is the largest full-service MLS in the Northwest. Its membership includes more than 21,000 real estate brokers. The organization, based in Kirkland, Wash., currently serves 21 counties in Washington state.

Survey Reveals Rising Prices, Strong Demand

The housing industry is staging a recovery with increasing sales and stabilizing prices, according to a national survey of RE/MAX agents. Four out of five agents believe U.S. home prices won’t decline further. In fact, nearly 70% predict prices will go up, led by a strong demand for homes in the low to middle price ranges.


"To active real estate agents, this market is definitely heating up," said RE/MAX CEO Margaret Kelly. "They are witnessing a recovery across the country fueled by home buyers and sellers taking advantage of a significant market opportunity."

Agent opinions are documented in the quarterly RE/MAX Market Insights, an online survey of 1,022 residential experts. The survey builds brand visibility for RE/MAX agents, and is typically picked up by more than 300 news outlets. Collectively, RE/MAX agents sell more real estate than any other real estate network in the U.S.

Download the RE/MAX Market Insights survey infographic.

Key findings include:

• Price rebound: 68% say prices will be higher by the end of 2012.
• Today’s prices: 29% below the peak reached during the housing bubble.
• Demand for lower-priced properties: 80% of agents say it’s good or very good.
• Demand for homes in the middle-price ranges: 71% rate it as fair to good.
• Demand for high-priced homes: 58% call it poor to fair.

A snapshot of today’s homebuyers served by RE/MAX agents:

• Roughly one third are first-time buyers. Another third are homeowners looking to sell so they can move up or downsize. The remainder are mostly investors, who believe the market has hit bottom.
• One in five buyers pays cash, receiving an average discount of 15%.

The most significant challenges facing first-time homebuyers are having an acceptable credit score, posting a down payment, and facing a shortage of homes for sale. Repeat buyers have the added burden of selling their current home. They, too, are facing a scarcity of homes to purchase in the lower and middle price ranges.

Nearly half of the agents say lower priced homes in their markets are selling for slightly less than the asking price, while 17% say buyers are paying full price and 11% say buyers are paying slightly more than the asking price.

For homes in the middle-price ranges, 49% report sale prices are slightly less than the asking price, while 8% say full-price is being paid. For the high-priced homes, 43% report that sale prices are moderately less than asking prices, with another 25% saying it is slightly less.

With bank-owned homes making up a significant portion of the current inventory, agents report that 62% of their non-investor buyers have a favorable attitude toward foreclosures, while only 27% have a favorable attitude toward short sales.

"With distressed properties still making up a sizeable portion of homes on the market, this inventory is being cleared effectively by buyers, who don’t mind investing a little to fix up a property in return for an attractive bargain," Kelly added.

Among buyers’ highest priorities were quality of schools, and condition and size of the home. The lowest priorities included public transportation, walkability and energy efficiency.

Most RE/MAX agents advise their buyers to hire a professional home inspector and to attend the inspection. Getting pre-approved for a mortgage, not merely pre-qualified, also is recommended.