September/October 2013 Market Pulse: Interest rate hikes and rising home prices are taking a toll on sales

July saw a monthly dip in pending sales nationally, though the rate was above one-year-ago figures for the 27th straight month. Higher prices are affecting the availability of FHA financing in some areas. And some areas are seeing higher mortgage and flood insurance premiums. On the plus side, households are jumping into the market to buy before rates and prices rise further. All trend lines are from July 2012 to July 2013.

Existing-home sales is a seasonally adjusted annual rate, which is the actual rate of sales for the month, multiplied by 12 and adjusted for seasonal sales differences. Pending home sales is an index that measures -housing contract activity. An index of 100 is equal to the level of activity during 2001, the benchmark year. Price indicates the national median. Inventory measures the number of existing homes on the market at the end of the month. 

Buyer and seller traffic, current conditions, six-month expectations, and time on market derive from a monthly REALTOR® Confidence Index. Results for July are based on 3,342 responses to 6,000 surveys sent to large and small real estate offices. The survey asks practitioners to indicate whether conditions are strong (100 points), moderate (50), or weak (0). Some data may be revised from previous issues.  Information from the National Association of REALTORS September/October 2013

Home prices rose in 41 states in the 1st quarter of 2013

• FHFA (Federal Housing Finance Agency) price data shows that home prices across the United States rose 6.7 percent from the first quarter of 2012 to the first quarter of 2013. In 41 states and the District of Columbia prices were higher than the fourth quarter of 2012, and from one year ago the District and all states except Connecticut and West Virginia showed higher prices. In Connecticut and West Virginia, prices were weaker by less than one percent.
• Price gains were largest in the West. Nevada, Arizona, California, and Idaho each saw gains exceeding 15 percent from one year ago. The map above shows the breakout of annual gains for each state.
• Nationally, prices rose 1.9 percent from the fourth quarter. Note that this is seasonally adjusted, but not annualized, meaning that if prices continue to gain at this pace, it would imply an 8 percent gain for home prices nationally in the course of a year.
• FHFA uses a weighted repeat sales index that compares the prices of properties that involve a conforming conventional mortgage purchased or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Thus, the FHFA index is based on a broad geographical sample of home transactions, though it misses out on transactions involving cash, jumbo or FHA/VA loans. In spite of this limitation, its price trend is usually similar to that of other price measures.

Courtesy of Danielle Hale, Research Economist via REALTOR.org

Pending Home Sales Near Three-year High

More homebuyers signed contracts to buy last month than any time since April 2010, according to the National Association of Realtors. And, not counting tax credit-induced spikes, pending home sales last month were the highest in six years.

Pending sales of existing homes, or contracts signed but sales not yet closed, rose 4.5 percent from December and were up 9.5 percent from a year ago.

"Favorable market conditions and job growth have unleashed a pent-up demand," said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. "Most areas are drawing down housing inventory, which has shifted the supply/demand balance to sellers in much of the country."

The Washington-based association has also revised higher its expectations for price gains this year, to 7 percent or more, from its previous forecast of home values rising as much as 6 percent.

Pending home sales rose in all regions of the country, led by the Midwest, where contract activity was up nearly 18 percent from a year ago.

Data courtesy of Jeff Clabaugh, Washington Business Journal.

Home-sale prices show first year-over-year gain since 2008

The selling price of homes and condos in Western Washington showed a year-over-year gain in April – for the first time in more than four years.

A home I just sold, 29 days on market, listed for $238,639, sold for $240,000,

appraised for $237,000 which was the final sales price.

Prices rose 1.27 percent between April 2011 and last month, after declining for 50 consecutive months, sometimes by double-digit percentages.

The median price for closed sales in 21 counties was $240,000, compared to $237,000 a year ago.

Brokers who reported the numbers to the Northwest Multiple Listing Service (MLS) did temper their optimism, though, saying any recovery in the housing market will be slow and incremental. Especially in outlying areas, the turnaround could be delayed, they said.