Pending sales during October
dipped 2.7 percent when compared to the same month a year ago, but rose nearly
3.2 percent from September’s volume. October’s decline was the first negative
change in year-over-year comparisons since April 2011. (That drop-off was
attributed in part to a frenzy during April 2010 when buyers were scrambling to
take advantage of a federal tax credit that was expiring.)
Brokers point to the federal
shutdown during the first two weeks of October, below-normal inventory, and
shaken consumer confidence as factors in the slowdown. MLS figures summarizing
last month’s activity across the 21 counties in its service area show
year-over-year improvement in inventory (up 5.5 percent), double-digit
increases in the volume of closed sales (up 12.5 percent), and moderate
increases in selling prices (up 7.7 percent).
Many experts indicate the
market has taken a “slight pause,” but emphasized one month’s numbers don’t
indicate a trend. “We are two years into what has been a very steady recovery.
It’s okay – and actually healthy – to have a slight slowdown.” The
government shutdown “definitely hurt consumer confidence” and put many would-be
buyers on the sidelines.
Consumer confidence
“deteriorated considerably” in October as a result of the shutdown and debt
ceiling squabbles, according to The Conference Board. A recent Gallup poll
found some improvement in Americans’ economic confidence, but reported it is
still well below mid-September, before the shutdown.
Despite improving inventory the
limited supply of homes for sale is also hampering sales. “Numerous buyers are
looking but just can’t find the right home to fit their needs,” many reported.
Northwest MLS brokers reported
8,086 pending sales during October, down from the year-ago total of 8,312
sales, but outgaining the number of mutually accepted offers in September by
247 transactions for a 3.2 percent increase. Eleven counties had fewer pending
sales last month versus a year ago.
Prices on sales that closed
last month rose 7.7 percent ($19,375) from a year ago. Area-wide, the median
price for single family homes and condominiums (combined) was $271,000.
Northwest MLS director George
Moorhead said more moderate and balanced growth helps “mitigate huge home price
fluctuations.” The slowdown is also reflected in the time it is taking listings
to sell, he noted. “We are seeing inventory staying on the market longer, which
will continue through the holiday season until late January to mid-February,”
said Moorhead.
More inventory is still needed
to meet demand, suggested Dick Beeson, principal managing broker at RE/MAX
Professionals in Tacoma and a past chairman of the Northwest MLS board of
directors. In Pierce County, where his office is located, inventory is about
even with year-ago levels, but 2,019 more sales have closed so far this year
for a jump of 25.4 percent.
Three counties – King, Pierce
and Snohomish – have less than three months of supply, well below the 4-to-6
month level that is generally considered to be an indicator of a balanced
market. “It still looks like a potential
housing shortage in Puget Sound come 2015 if building doesn’t increase,” Beeson
commented.
At least one segment of the new
construction market shows signs of rebounding: condominiums.
“Most residential developers
went into hibernation during the real estate bear market of the past five
years, but this past month heralded a bullish resurgence of several
developments,” said John Deely, a member of the Northwest MLS board of
directors. Last month was like spring in the South Lake Union neighborhood, he
reported.
Deely cited the opening of
sales for a new 41-story condominium community and the restart of two other
major residential developments as positive indicators. The projects include a
high-rise residential development near the Space Needle and the restart of a
hotel-condo building in the Denny Triangle area of downtown Seattle. “This is
good news as the market is starving for new condominium inventory,” he stated.
Beeson also commented on
upticks in condo activity. He said some condo developers who placed units in
the rental pool during the 2008-2010 downturn are converting them back to
for-sale housing and trying to sell them in today’s improved market. “The price
points have still not returned to 2006-2007 levels but the chance to move some
product now exists,” he commented.
MLS brokers added more than 1,000 new listings to condo
inventory last month, a jump of 24.3 percent from a year ago. Total inventory
is 9.1 percent higher than at this time last year. Closed sales during October
jumped 15.3 percent, with prices rising about 5.3 percent.
Condos that closed during
October had a median price of $200,000. In King County, which accounted for
about two-thirds of those sales, the median price was $234,000.
“The real estate market has
been moving in the right direction,” observed Gain, adding, “It has been a huge
improvement over the past several years.” To underscore his point, he noted
pending sales year-to-date are up by nearly 6,000 units (at 5,994) for a 7.3
percent increase. YTD closed sales are already up 10,167 units from a year ago
for an increase of almost 19 percent (18.8), and prices are up by $27,000 for
an increase of 11.1 percent.
“I would say the real estate market is
recovering nicely,” he concluded.
|
Statistical Summary by
Counties: Market Activity
Summary – October 2013 Single Fam. Homes + Condos
|
LISTINGS
|
PENDING SALES
|
CLOSED SALES
|
MONTHS
SUPPLY
| |||||||||||
|
New Listings
|
Total Active
|
# Pending Sales
|
# Closings
|
Avg. Price
|
Median Price
| ||||||||||
|
King
|
3,047
|
5,799
|
3,306
|
2,798
|
$461,138
|
$380,000
|
1.75
| ||||||||
|
Snohomish
|
1,217
|
2,629
|
1,219
|
1,041
|
$293,894
|
$270,000
|
2.16
| ||||||||
|
Pierce
|
1,217
|
3,571
|
1,324
|
1,014
|
$236,761
|
$217,898
|
2.70
| ||||||||
|
Kitsap
|
400
|
1,483
|
373
|
328
|
$286,658
|
$244,975
|
3.98
| ||||||||
|
Mason
|
113
|
710
|
91
|
75
|
$194,380
|
$165,800
|
7.80
| ||||||||
|
Skagit
|
174
|
796
|
180
|
150
|
$268,572
|
$232,710
|
4.42
| ||||||||
|
Grays Harbor
|
115
|
757
|
109
|
77
|
$121,497
|
$118,000
|
6.94
| ||||||||
|
Lewis
|
89
|
696
|
79
|
54
|
$156,788
|
$148,700
|
8.81
| ||||||||
|
Cowlitz
|
111
|
456
|
114
|
107
|
$172,207
|
$153,000
|
4.00
| ||||||||
|
Grant
|
102
|
501
|
74
|
54
|
$161,476
|
$148,000
|
6.77
| ||||||||
|
Thurston
|
380
|
1,276
|
370
|
302
|
$222,805
|
$203,495
|
3.45
| ||||||||
|
San Juan
|
27
|
389
|
22
|
25
|
$450,260
|
$384,000
|
17.68
| ||||||||
|
Island
|
150
|
757
|
139
|
112
|
$270,065
|
$255,000
|
5.45
| ||||||||
|
Kittitas
|
64
|
440
|
57
|
60
|
$238,981
|
$201,675
|
7.72
| ||||||||
|
Jefferson
|
52
|
428
|
58
|
38
|
$259,120
|
$267,000
|
7.38
| ||||||||
|
Okanogan
|
54
|
482
|
34
|
23
|
$211,470
|
$128,000
|
14.18
| ||||||||
|
Whatcom
|
272
|
1,440
|
276
|
280
|
$282,221
|
$249,000
|
5.22
| ||||||||
|
Clark
|
60
|
207
|
55
|
36
|
$269,104
|
$239,000
|
3.76
| ||||||||
|
Pacific
|
44
|
429
|
37
|
31
|
$142,745
|
$124,000
|
11.59
| ||||||||
|
Ferry
|
8
|
69
|
2
|
3
|
$89,667
|
$79,000
|
34.50
| ||||||||
|
Clallam
|
56
|
397
|
63
|
58
|
$216,245
|
$200,000
|
6.30
| ||||||||
|
Others
|
142
|
679
|
104
|
86
|
$222,125
|
$194,500
|
6.53
| ||||||||
|
MLS TOTAL
|
7,894
|
24,391
|
8,086
|
6,752
|
$339,607
|
$271,000
|
3.02
| ||||||||
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